CASE STUDY · SEND SUFFICIENCY
£30m of cost avoidance.
43% fewer independent special school places.
A county council’s special schools were over capacity, and high needs spend was forecast to nearly double by 2028. We quantified inclusion at school level and built a SEND and AP sufficiency plan the council now runs itself.
Objectives and impact
We were commissioned to meet more needs in local mainstream schools, while making high needs spending more sustainable.
OBJECTIVE 01
Link finance and operational data to create an evidence-based diagnostic.
IMPACT
43%
fewer children forecast in independent special schools by 2028 (540 rather than 949), as local places are planned closer to home.
OBJECTIVE 02
Identify cost avoidance opportunities and quantify the cost of a lack of inclusion.
IMPACT
£15m
of further potential cost avoidance in a single district, the local area with the fastest growth in special school demand and the fewest new places planned.
OBJECTIVE 03
Give the leadership team a product to repeat the exercise independently.
IMPACT
13%
lower forecast high needs spend in 2028, as a mitigation model built with the finance team valued £30m of existing plans against a £241m unmitigated forecast.
How we did it, and what we found
Local pupil forecasts and school-level inclusion metrics showed where provision was needed, and which schools drove escalation.
Measured inclusion school by school
48%
of primary schools were responsible for 88% of escalations to special school.
Forecast local SEND demand
106%
of secondary special school places in use, with EHCPs forecast to rise by up to 46% by 2028.
Costed alternatives to locum EPs
£1.1m
of net savings over four years by cutting reliance on locum EPs.
Left the tools with the council
5
Power BI dashboards and a mitigation model stay in-house, refreshed every six months by the council.